Adjusting to Abrupt Climate System Change
A few years ago Nate Hagens wrote a brilliant peer reviewed scientific paper (Ref1) in the journal “Ecological Economics” titled: “Economics for the Future: Beyond the Superorganism."
I chat about the crucial messages of this paper, which are that energy constraints will soon result in a collapse of our present way of life. Orthodox economics does not consider energy constraints, and our Superorganism society is on its last legs as we create more and more credit (this debt) to extract dwindling fossil fuels.
One barrel of oil contains 1700 kW hr of energy. Human power can generate 0.6 kW hr with a days work. Thus, 11 years of human labour is replaced by one barrel of oil. Thus, our fossil fuels powering society do the equivalent work of an imaginary workforce of 500 billion people; meanwhile the globe has about 4 billion workers. Clearly, things will scale back enormously without fossil fuels. That’s the physics, folks.
Of course burning fossil fuels releases carbon which has changed the chemistry of our atmosphere and oceans, and we are cracking up.
We are addicted to the present.
Bug-Out Places Escaping Abrupt Climate System Collapse: Bunkers Underground, Underwater, and on Mars… https://t.co/wfOG4Vfdjp
— Paul Beckwith (@PaulHBeckwith) March 10, 2023
Bottom line: There’s no place like home.#ClimateAction #climate #climatechange #Bunker pic.twitter.com/IgshcN1s33
Ref 1: Our environment and economy are at a crossroads. This paper attempts a cohesive narrative on how human evolved behavior, money, energy, economy and the environment fit together. Humans strive for the same emotional state of our successful ancestors. In a resource rich environment, we coordinate in groups, corporations and nations, to maximize financial surplus, tethered to energy, tethered to carbon. At global scales, the emergent result of this combination is a mindless, energy hungry, CO2 emitting Superorganism.
Under this dynamic we are now behaviorally ‘growth constrained’ and will use any means possible to avoid facing this reality. The farther we kick the can, the larger the disconnect between our financial and physical reality becomes.
The moment of this recalibration will be a watershed time for our culture, but could also be the birth of a new ‘systems economics’. and resultant different ways of living. The next 30 years are the time to apply all we’ve learned during the past 30 years. We’ve arrived at a species level conversation.
Cleaner fuels for ships are bringing public health benefits, but are also unleashing huge climate risks that could lead to many more deaths in the long run. Dr.Hansen forecasts a bump in warming that will likely trigger feedbacks and take us to 4°C of warming by 2100. What to do? pic.twitter.com/0bZHaot7J3
— Let's Plant 1 Trillion Trees (@JustPlants4Life) March 7, 2023
Author
Please donate here, to support my research and videos as I connect the dots on abrupt climate system change.
