Ultimately, of course, abrupt, irreversible climate change will cause the extinction of all life on Earth.
As a result, the question asked in this video merits an obvious affirmative response. Climate change will terminate the country of my birth and all other political entities. The surprise, at least to me, is that an article about the demise of the United States appears in a corporate media outlet.
On 23 January 2025, this headline appeared at Forbes: Climate Change May Mean the End of the United States. Anybody paying attention knows that the resulting loss of aerosol masking means that “the end of the United States” means the end of life on Earth. As the U.S. goes, unfortunately, so goes the world.
Here’s the lede for the article at Forbes: “I’ll be the first to say I hope my headline is wrong.” I know that feeling. The first paragraph includes an additional sentence: “But let’s explore the facts and then do a thought experiment.”
The two following paragraphs provide a cogent and thoughtful summary of the situation faced by Californians and, ultimately, by all of us: “As California grapples with yet another round of devastating wildfires, the Golden State finds itself at a critical juncture. The recent infernos that ravaged Los Angeles County, destroying thousands of homes and displacing over 100,000 residents, are just the latest in a string of climate-fueled disasters that have battered the state in recent years.
The intensifying cycle of wildfires, droughts, and floods has not only taken a toll on Californians' lives and property but has also sent shockwaves through the insurance industry. Major insurers, faced with mounting losses and an increasingly unpredictable risk landscape, have begun a mass exodus from the California market. State Farm, Allstate, and others have either severely limited their coverage or pulled out entirely, leaving millions of homeowners in limbo.”
California has long led the way in progressive politics. From catalytic converters on vehicles to the environmental impact of proposed large-scale projects, California’s laws and policies have served as models for other states and countries. California’s Environmental Quality Act led the way when it was signed into law in 1970 by Governor Ronald Reagan. Several years later, Reagan’s election to the presidency was emblematic of the right-wing shift in the US and the world. Were he alive today, I suspect he would be viewed as too progressive to lead this country. The country and the world have shifted so far to the right that I suspect Reagan could not be elected to a local school board. He would be viewed as too liberal for that.
The article in Forbes goes on to explain that—in the wake of numerous disasters and the failure of insurance companies—California has expanded its FAIR Plan. This insurer of last resort is administered by the state to account for the inability of companies to provide protection. It was initially designed to provide fire insurance for entities who could not find it elsewhere. The FAIR Plan is increasingly overwhelmed by the magnitude of the crisis.
You might believe, like many people, that California is merely one state among many. Because California is often perceived as too liberal to be taken seriously, it is on the receiving end of many jokes about contemporary socialism and even communism. However, California leads the world in capitalism. California’s economy is the fifth largest in the world, exceeded only by the U.S., China, Germany, and Japan. California’s Gross Domestic Product per capita exceeds all these countries. Gross Domestic Product per capita is a common measure of the total value of goods and services produced in a state or country over a specific period. California’s strong capitalist economy demonstrates the falsehood of the commonly held view that the economy and the environment are necessarily at odds with one another.
A recent FACT SHEET from the California Department of Insurance indicates the accelerating magnitude of the problem faced by California. The number of total homeowners and fire policies has grown. Unfortunately, so has the percentage of non-renewals. The number of FAIR Plan policies nearly doubled from 2015 to 2021, growing from 141,391 policies in 2015 to 268,261 policies only six years later. Even a booming California economy cannot keep up with wildfires that are devastating the state. As a result, California has been forced to turn to the U.S. for assistance. As you can imagine, that’s a significant problem in light of the current presidential administration.
Trump has never been a fan of California. He has engaged in a long-lasting feud with California’s Governor, Gavin Newsom. California consistently pays more in federal taxes than it receives in federal funding. For example, in 2021, the state contributed $472 billion in federal tax revenue. In response, Trump provides no federal aid to the state. Consistent with his usual approach, Trump defends his decisions about California with inaccuracies on social media.
Can the country of my birth afford to lose California? That’s a question we might face very soon. California’s secession has long been viewed as a fringe idea. However, the disagreement between Californians and the Trump administration might push this idea into reality. Retaining nearly half a trillion dollars each year to rebuild California is an attractive idea to many Californians. It makes more sense than sending money to the federal government, where the current administration will undoubtedly misspend it.
The country of my birth is increasingly polarized. I can easily imagine California breaking away. After all, most Californians believe the three facts used to close the article in Forbes:
“Climate change is here.
Climate change is a financial issue.
Addressing climate change is an economic imperative for America.”
It’s a simple step from the secession of California to the complete dismantling of the country of my birth. Just as most of us could not survive a significant loss of income, neither could the country. We are stunningly close to that reality.
Author
"Dr. Guy McPherson is an internationally recognized speaker, award-winning scientist, and the world’s leading authority on abrupt climate change leading to near-term human extinction. He is professor emeritus at the University of Arizona, where he taught and conducted research for twenty years. His published works include 14 books and hundreds of scholarly articles. Dr. McPherson has been featured on TV and radio and in several documentary films. He is a blogger, cultural critic, and co-host of his own radio show “Nature Bats Last.” Dr. McPherson speaks to general audiences across the globe, and to scientists, students, educators, and not-for-profit and business leaders who seek their best available options when confronting Earth’s cataclysmic changes." source
Latest Peer-Reviewed Journal Article:
McPherson, Guy R., Beril Sirmack, and Ricardo Vinuesa. March 2022. Environmental thresholds for mass-extinction events. Results in Engineering (2022), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2022.100342.
